I am often interviewed in the media as a travel expert, and I was on TV again yesterday and Saturday to talk about the Cuban situation. People often overestimate actual risk levels, but this time… Hotels and resorts are fine currently, but airports have advised airlines that they have no more jet fuel available. The fuel situation is not that dramatic in and of itself, but all Canadian airlines are suspending their flights anyway.
Airlines could work around the fuel situation if they wanted to. But they aren’t, either because they’d lose money (due to the added fuel or, more likely, due to the drop in demand caused by this news) or because they don’t think the risk is worth it (due to what this news means for the situation with the rest of the basic necessities on the island).
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Here are the details about the Cuba situation (my interviews aren’t available online, so I’ll just recap what I said).
Why is Cuba in deep trouble?
US President Donald Trump has increased the pressure on the Communist government, and as a result, Cuba is facing a critical shortage of petroleum in particular.
Venezuela used to supply Cuba with its oil, but after the US intervention there in early January, that has stopped. Mexico provided some as well, but Trump threatened them with tariffs so they stopped. Cuba’s economy was already pretty shaky, obviously.
So things are not going well at all.
Why is it normal to be worried for once?
If you’re an experienced traveler, you know (or you really should know) that almost everyone overestimates the actual risk level for almost everything related to travel. It’s almost always exaggerated. That’s factually and statistically undebatable. More on that below.
But with this risk in Cuba… it’s quite understandable to be worried, as I said on TV.
Uncertainty is what many people do not like, and the situation in Cuba is as uncertain as it gets. Even though people are still overreacting about the jet fuel and the current situation in hotels, to be clear.
There just aren’t many grave situations like this around the world, where they could plausibly run out of the most basic necessities, and they could plausibly collapse into a failed state. That’s exceedingly rare, obviously.
The current political context is very peculiar. And this is a country where things have not been great for a long time.
It’s even more understandable to be worried if you’re among the type of traveler (or even vacationer/tourist, really) that Cuba usually attracts, who doesn’t like complexity and is looking mostly for a simple and relaxing getaway (why go to Cuba with this risk when there are plenty of other options).
And it’s especially understandable if you’re among the honestly wild amount of people who sadly don’t even leave their resort and don’t interact with the local culture at all (why go to Cuba with this risk when any other resort in any other country also has a buffet, bar, pool, and beach).
What is the actual situation in Cuba?
The issue is with jet fuel. That’s it for now. And Canada is close enough that Canadian airlines can carry enough fuel to get back, or simply stop in the US.
There’s no grave risk there. There’s no risk of getting stuck, just a risk of being inconvenienced a bit. The fuel risk is a great example of the overreaction. It’s not a remote island in the middle of the Pacific. You can definitely relax about this part.
To be very clear, literally all reports are that the situation is fine in hotels and resorts right now.
Most people often confuse different things, which is often caused by reacting impulsively and overly emotionally (AKA irrationally) instead of remaining calm and looking at the facts.
The situation now in hotels and resorts is fine. That’s not the issue.
The issue is that this could obviously change very dramatically, and very quickly. And the reality is that no one apart from the leaders there knows what will really happen. And can you trust them to tell the truth, given how dependent the island’s economy is on tourism?
Now, we do know that there is no more jet fuel available for airlines as of today. That has nothing to do with the situation in hotels and resorts, which are operating fine by all accounts.
They’ve consolidated guests into the same hotels, in some cases. Again, people are overreacting.
Sure, it could mean some hotels are experiencing shortages… or it could genuinely just be a savvy move to save money and resources with the lower number of tourists… Why have 3 separate 500-room hotels be 2/3 empty when everyone could fit into just 1?
But either they’re cutting jet fuel to make sure hotels can run normally… or hotels will run out soon. Literally impossible to predict with any level of certainty, for anyone. And people hate uncertainty.
What are airlines doing about the situation?
I was going to lead with a “should I go to Cuba?” section, but it’s kind of a moot point now, given the airlines’ announcement.
There are 3 Canadian airlines serving Cuba: Air Canada, Air Transat, and WestJet (WestJet acquired Sunwing last year).
All 3 have announced the suspension of all flights to Cuba. They’ll repatriate all travelers, but they are no longer flying anyone there.
Remember that you are owed a full refund in cash (not in the form of a voucher or credit) any time an airline cancels or significantly modifies your flight, which is another great reason to book independently on your own and avoid packages.
For packages, your rights are theoretically he same, but sometimes aren’t as easily enforced. So they might try to force you to accept a voucher or credit rather than a full refund, depending on the dates and airline.
All 3 airlines have implemented goodwill policies to give more flexibility.
That’s yet another great example of such a simple tip we’ve been repeating for 9 years: never cancel a flight in advance, even if you’re 100% sure you don’t want to go. I’m sure many scared people canceled their flights to Cuba weeks ago and had to pay a cancellation fee. If they had simply waited, they could’ve taken advantage of the goodwill policy.
Now, this flight suspension is supposed to be temporary, but as of now, that’s what’s happening. We’ll keep you informed of the situation in our free newsletter (join 150,000+ savvy Canadian travelers who receive all our travel tips, deals, and content).
To be clear, it doesn’t necessarily mean that hotels and resorts will run out of electricity imminently. They might, but they might not at all either.
This flights suspenion mostly means that it just no longer makes financial sense for airlines to operate these flights, given the fuel circumstances, or given that people are very fearful… and that has probably completely decimated demand to Cuba.
Is the situation in Cuba really that bad?
On one side, the Cuban Ministry of Tourism was reassuring Canadians and saying everything was fine up until Friday. On the other side, the Canadian government did what it does best and put out overly alarmist travel advisories.
But as is often the case, the truth is somewhere in the middle!
As I said in my TV interview on Saturday (and it has been proven right very quickly), the Cuban government’s statements are completely meaningless. Of course, they are going to say that everything is fine until they absolutely can’t say it anymore, so as not to cause panic.
The reality is that, sadly, many people are extremely and overly fearful. It’s one of the things we have been adamant about educating travelers about in the 9 years Flytrippers has been creating content. Unless they reassure people, people will be scared. They have to reassure people.
To be clear: It could have been true. But it absolutely does not mean it’s true.
And as Flytrippers has been telling you for years (and all experienced travelers know), the Canadian government’s travel advisories are almost as useless. These are always extremely alarmist. Please take those with a huge grain of salt.
The reality is that, sadly, many people are objectively terrible at putting risks into context. The government has to list every possible thing that can happen, and since people can’t evaluate the actual risk level very well, they are automatically scared.
To be clear: Risks do exist. But most of them are statistically and factually much less likely to happen than a car accident.
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Summary
The situation in Cuba isn’t dangerous right now for travelers already there, despite the lack of aviation fuel. Especially in hotels and resorts, where everything is fine for now. But it can obviously change very quickly and drastically, so all Canadian airlines have suspended their flights. It’s less about an immediate crisis on the ground and more about risk, logistics, and collapsing demand, which makes airlines unwilling to keep flying.
What would you like to know about how Cuban airports have no more jet fuel? Tell us in the comments below.
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Featured image: Varadero, Cuba (photo credit: Isaac Gallinati, edited by Flytrippers)
